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EXPORT VOLUMES BY DESTINATION: Year-to-Date 2026 (Units of 1,000)

Combined US Export Activity: Year-to-Date 2026 (Units of 1,000)

US Export Activity: Cattle Hides – Splits (Pounds)

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Takeaways:

American steer prices remain steady albeit a little on the softer side. Some sellers maintain natives are getting harder to sell and buyers corroborate by saying they are buying natives at $29.00 – with ease. According to our confirmed HNS and  BBS trades this week both selections  eased 50 cents.  Collies sold this week too but we were unable to confirm prices. HTS held at $21.00 (though we did hear about some unconfirmed trades at both $20 and $22) and BRS at $18.50–$19.00. We come back to the same argument, with US cattle slaughter down 7% YTD, reduced hide production should be supportive—but it has not pushed steer prices meaningfully higher. Which points us back to demand. Again. There are encouraging signals from luxury and potential new bovine outlets such as collagen. (We did speak with Australia also this week and they said they were seeing a positive shift in leather demand.) But leather is  losing ground in applications and automotive. For now, lower slaughter appears to be supporting the market rather than driving it higher.

But back to car …and truck… leather. How about GM? Leather seats will no longer be available in some of America’s most beloved work trucks, Sierras and Silverados, and staples in the farming and ranching world?

We thought there would be a bigger stir. (We almost missed the announcement.) That ‘consumers’ would protest. Loudly. We did see Zane Dobie’s column about bringing back leather in high end cars in the magazine Drive, but he only got 19 comments. Maybe it’ll take a minute. Like it did for Volvo. Their leather-free experiment lasted less than 4 years. Back in 2021, Volvo Cars pledged that all new fully electric models would be leather-free, citing animal welfare and the environmental impact of cattle farming. The company developed alternatives including Nordico, made partly from recycled PET, bio-based material and recycled cork, and said its planned all-electric lineup would be entirely leather-free by 2030. In 2025, Volvo reversed course and confirmed genuine leather would return. They said the decision was “entirely based on feedback from our customers”. The question now is whether GM will end up in the same situation, when angry customers call cancel their orders of Sierras and Silverados? Or, what’s a cattle rancher to do? Buy a RAM?

~ MB

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Our Man in Milan

Taking stock of current possibilities of Italian M&As: D&C. Furla. Ferragamo. Natuzzi.

What will happen in the coming months? The tanning industry is set to face further turbulence, primarily linked to financial pressures. Many entrepreneurs have poured their own capital into tanneries—businesses already heavily exposed after three and a half years of declining revenue. Such a prolonged crisis is simply unsustainable for any economic sector.

Further down the supply chain, the toll on manufacturers is already high. This week, another closure of a leather-goods factory in Tuscany’s Monte Amiata area was announced. The region once served as an important production hub for major brands including Gucci and Prada. Declining orders created severe difficulties, leading to the gradual “desertification” of the district.

The furniture sector also faces a number of difficulties. Most notably is Natuzzi, which continues to lose ground—sales fell 23% in Q2, with an operating loss of €10 million. It holds the unenviable record of reliance (20 years) on state-subsidized furlough schemes (cassa integrazione).

And what about fashion? This week, Milano Finanza—the newspaper I work for—ran a feature echoing themes I explored over the summer: companies that could attract investors or see changes in private-equity ownership. Some key cases:

Dolce & Gabbana is attracting interest around potential deals or the acquisition of minority stakes by investment funds. The company’s debt is a factor, but it remains a prestigious brand that has made the right strategic moves in several areas—particularly beauty—making an investment potentially quite lucrative. Giorgio Armani remains a focal point for the potential entry of a major partner following the eventual passing of its founder. In leather goods, Furla is one of the most closely watched brands — there is talk of a significant offer from Asia. The owner family has yet to comment.

Another name frequently at the center of rumors is Ferragamo—a company clearly facing difficulties, partly because two of its key markets are Japan, severely affected by the weaker yen, and the US, where tariffs have complicated the landscape. The stock market tells the story: shares were worth €22 in 2022 and are now hovering just above €6.

Who might acquire Ferragamo? I have long maintained that Zegna would be the perfect buyer. The two companies created a footwear-production joint venture known as “Zefer.” Such a deal would represent another all-Italian combination following the Prada Group’s acquisition of Versace. There are, however, currently no concrete rumors suggesting any real interest from Zegna in Ferragamo. Zegna is also still integrating the Tom Ford fashion business it acquired in 2023. Nevertheless, it has significant resources that could be directed toward such a deal, with clear production synergies given the complementary nature of the two businesses. I, for one, sincerely hope it happens.

Anything else worth noting? Over the next 18 to 24 months, at least 20 companies in the sector currently backed by private-equity funds will likely seek an exit. Investors are showing interest not only in major brands, but also in small and medium-sized companies across the supply chain, as well as in beauty and hospitality—helped by a period in which valuations are undergoing a necessary adjustment.

Andrea Guolo also produces content for Milano Finanza, Vogue Italia, and other international publications. He’s worked at Unic (16yrs) and was the author of Hidenet’s European Report (10yrs). He has published an independent report on the European leather market since Sept. Please contact info@hideandtrend.com for a free trial of his report.

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Prices

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The legitimate global exotic leather market is highly regulated, premium niche valued at approximately $928.74 million in 2025, projected to double by 2034.

    INVASIVE

    AMERICAN ALLIGATOR

*Pricing data compiled in collaboration with Inversa and other sourcing authorities.

Brand Performances

Ferragamo: Direct-to-consumer up 4% in the first 9 months; wholesale weighs on revenue, down to $783M

Mulberry: H1 sales up 18%; US +28%, Europe +23%, UK +10%. Wholesale/franchise sales up 52%

Moncler Q3 revenue flat at $680M, 8% drop in EU. Stone Island +5%, Americas +2% and Asia mid-single digits

The UK fashion retailer ME+EM continues its push in to the US, based on 48% surge in American sales

Frasers Group reduces its Burberry stake, making a potential pullback from its luxury spending spree

Puig reports a 5.6% Q3 sales increase, fragrance, makeup and fashion on the up

Zegna Group’s revenue rises 7.2% in the first 9 months driven by DTC and the Americas, Thom Browne declines

Kering Q3 revenue stabilizes at $3.9B, Gucci falls 6%. Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga leather goods support improvement

Hermès posts 5.5% increase in third-quarter sales, driven by Europe and the Americas

Deckers Q2 sales rose ($1.48B) but missed estimates. Comparable DTC sales fell as aggressive rival discounting pressured Ugg and Hoka; profit rose 27%

Brand performance takeaway

Luxury is stabilizing, but the recovery is highly uneven—and the Americas are doing much of the work. DTC remains the stronger channel, while wholesale is still a drag for some brands. At the same time, Deckers shows that even successful premium footwear brands are running into a more promotional, price-sensitive consumer as “aggressive rival discounting pressured Ugg and Hoka.”

Stella expands Asian footwear capacity

Hong Kong-based footwear manufacturer Stella International reported Q3 revenue up 2.2% to $412.9 million, while footwear volumes fell 4.3% but average selling prices rose 6%, reflecting a shift toward higher-priced products, particularly sports footwear, and higher raw-material costs. Stella opened a new Vietnam factory in Q3 and will add plants in Indonesia and Bangladesh, together with existing expansion adding about 20 million pairs of production capacity as the supplier positions for higher-value business with global brands. Reuters. 

Prada expands leather-goods production as sales rise

Prada Group reported nine-month revenue up 15% to about $5.3 billion, with the Americas its strongest market, up 33%, and Asia-Pacific up 12% despite slower mainland China traffic. Newly integrated Versace contributed about $513 million. Prada also opened a new fully integrated leather-goods production facility in Tuscany, reinforcing manufacturing capacity even as the luxury market remains volatile. FashionNetwork.

Hermès walks the line between growth and exclusivity

The scarcity that helped turn the Hermès Birkin into one of luxury’s most coveted products is showing cracks. UBS estimates the number of Birkin and Kelly bags listed for resale worldwide is now six to seven times pre-pandemic levels, while the average Birkin 25 resale price has fallen from 2.6 times retail at its 2022 peak to 1.7 times in Q3. One reseller said an unworn Birkin has lost more than $6,000 in resale value since 2022. Hermès has gradually expanded production of its handcrafted goods, opening about one new workshop annually, although it does not disclose Birkin volumes; CEO Axel Dumas says output remains constrained by trained artisans and the availability of high-quality leather.
The development comes just a week after reports that Hermès is expanding its US retail footprint beyond traditional luxury centers, using customer and demographic data to target wealthy suburbs and smaller cities. The two strategies are not necessarily at odds—Hermès sells far more than Birkins—but they underline the balancing act facing a brand whose growth depends on reaching more customers while much of its mystique depends on remaining difficult to obtain. Leather goods and saddlery account for 44% of Hermès revenue. Reuters/WSJ.

Chinese design is booming. What does that mean for Western luxury?

China’s rising domestic designer scene is adding competitive pressure to Western luxury brands as consumers become more selective and prioritize quality, individuality and value over brand recognition. The shift comes as China’s luxury fashion market remains well below its 2023 peak and LVMH’s Fashion & Leather Goods sales fell 5% in Q3, partly due to weaker Chinese demand. For leather, the emergence of homegrown fashion brands—backed by China’s extensive manufacturing base and increasingly sophisticated consumers—could reshape where future luxury leather demand originates, while forcing established Western leather-goods houses to compete more aggressively on product and craftsmanship rather than prestige alone. Vogue Business.

Heschung doubles down on leather craftsmanship

French shoemaker Heschung is marking the 40th anniversary of its Ginkgo boot, a leather-intensive model requiring 180 production steps and using calf, Aquabuck and Suportlo leather from France’s Haas tannery. The 92-year-old company produces about 25,000 pairs annually, with 80–85% of manufacturing in France, and has invested $1.7 million in factory upgrades. Heschung is also expanding its repair and resoling service and will launch made-to-order footwear in 2027, reinforcing its focus on durable, high-value leather footwear. FashionNetwork.

Shein pays $100 million to settle FTC probe

The synthetic-heavy, ultra-low-cost fashion competitor, has agreed to pay $100 million to settle a US Federal Trade Commission investigation into delivery delays and other customer complaints, equivalent to 44% of its Q2 profit. The settlement adds to mounting regulatory pressure on the fast-fashion group in the US and Europe: Shein shares have fallen 22% since its Sept. 1 listing, while app downloads across 10 markets dropped 42% YoY in September. The company is also facing an EU investigation into illegal marketplace products and higher European e-commerce fees that have slowed growth. Reuters.

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Thanks for reading,

Majsan Boström
Executive Editor