Hide & TrendTM

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This week in the news: South America is inching in on the US hide market. Better genetics, more feedlots and younger cattle narrow the traditional quality gap. A potential port strike at Los Angeles/Long Beach slated for Nov 5. threatens terminals handling more than half the port complex’s cargo. In cattle, September feedlot placements fell to the lowest level since records began in 1996, while beef-on-dairy now accounts for roughly 20% of US fed cattle. Mercosur gains ground as North American trade uncertainty persists, while fashion’s sustainability narrative is shifting beyond certification toward regenerative sourcing—using demand for raw materials to support farmers, ranchers and communities in restoring landscapes and conserving ecosystems.

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South America narrows the quality gap

We keep hearing it, and now people are talking about it too: South America is becoming a more serious competitor to US hides. Brazil is the obvious one. It is slaughtering more cattle than the US (and growing) where the cattle supply is at an ultimate low and good ways from its upward motion.

Just a year or two ago, most industry veterans shrugged at the question of what kind of competition the South American raw hide hub posed. Many going into the usual explanation about the animals graze outside and how close Brazil and others are to the equator, bug bites, etc etc. That tune has changed, South American hide quality is on the up and up.

Brazilian producers are adding feedlots, improving genetics and harvesting younger cattle to satisfy export beef markets. And as the meat gets better, so are the hides. “You start using similar genetics as the US, you start feeding similar to the US, guess what? You get a hide similar to the US,” a source told HIDE & TREND. Some say there’s a similar trend in Mexico. “People have seen the animals.” And others think Mexico would have a hard time competing based on simple national issues like corruption.

While not quite as large, The Argentinian, Paraguayan, and Uruguayan markets are moving in the same direction as Brazil. The improvement of South American hides didn’t happen overnight, and it isn’t simply about tariffs. It’s a simple business equation and It has been building for years. Brazil is getting bigger, its hides are getting better—and the US quality advantage is getting a little less comfortable. “Younger animals, fewer bug and tick defects and a hide that increasingly resembles the US product? Yes, we are worried,” one source said.

Los Angeles ports avoided a potential strike, temporarily

The Los Angeles-Long Beach port system has avoided a potential strike, at least temporarily. The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 agreed to extend contract talks through November 5 with federal mediators. The dispute involves maritime watchmen, who control terminal access, inspect vehicles and employees, provide security and monitor critical cargo. While they represent only about 2% of port workers, they serve terminals handling roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo, meaning a walkout could significantly disrupt freight flows. The extension comes as both ports are handling heavy volumes after posting record September cargo totals, including holiday merchandise, AI data-center equipment and auto parts. Reuters

The Shipping Telegraph also reported Friday that dockworkers across 113 ports in 22 countries planned strikes and demonstrations. They are protesting the movement of military equipment through civilian ports while also pressing for better wages, safety and labor protections. Actions spanned Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas and Australia. The extent of commercial shipping disruption remains uncertain. It sounded like a small interference but we’ll return to both situations as needed. 

Mexican cattle return, slow slaughter persists

Mexican cattle began moving through Columbus, New Mexico, Oct. 26, the third US border crossing to reopen, with another Arizona crossing scheduled for late November. Columbus and nearby Santa Teresa historically handle about one-third of Mexican cattle imports; before the outbreak, the US imported about 1 million Mexican cattle annually. USDA has raised its cattle-import forecast following the reopenings, but still expects the slow American slaughter pace to continue through 2027 as domestic cattle supplies remain tight. Cattle prices for 2026 were raised to reflect recent strength, while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. The reopenings remain cautious as New World screwworm has widened to 71 confirmed US animal cases, with 18 still active; Mexican cattle are subject to extensive inspection, treatment and insecticide-dipping protocols. Associated Press/USDA.

The October global leather market remained stable but subdued

Tighter hide supplies provide support but inconsistent tannery demand limit price gains. US cattle slaughter was down 7% through September. Whole-hide exports fell 31% YoY as demand from China and Italy remained weak. China continues to be the biggest concern, with sluggish upholstery and automotive leather demand and pressure from synthetics. Brazil presents a different picture: slaughter is rising and hide, skin and leather exports reached $814.2 million through September. Salted-hide exports surged 65.5% while finished leather fell 13%, and an estimated 60–80% of lower-grade hides are now going into gelatin. Italy remains soft overall, particularly in automotive and upholstery, although footwear and leather goods are performing somewhat better. Bottom line: tighter US supply is supporting hide values, but demand—not availability—remains the market’s weak link.

Auto markets diverge as electrification accelerates

Europe’s auto market continued shifting toward electrified vehicles, with EU registrations up 5.7% through September and battery-electric sales surging 48.5% to 1.93 million units, while petrol and diesel registrations fell about 19%. China is moving sharply in the opposite direction, with 2026 passenger-vehicle sales forecast to plunge 22% to 18.5 million, the steepest decline on record. Among automakers, Stellantis showed signs of stabilization, with Q3 revenue up 1% to about $44 billion and losses narrowing sharply, while Volkswagen reported a $6.5 billion quarterly loss as weak Chinese demand, US. tariffs and lower EV margins intensified pressure. VW has also suspended development of the all-electric Golf at its Wolfsburg plant after the factory failed to meet cost targets. The contrasting results point to a rapidly changing global auto market, with continued implications for automotive leather demand and suppliers.

Trade blocs: Mercosur gains ground as North American trade uncertainty persists

Important trade negotiations are moving on several fronts, led by an increasingly complicated North American picture. Mexico-US push for an interim bilateral agreement before Nov. 3 midterms. Mexico seeks significant reductions in US tariffs while Washington presses concerns over automotive content and Chinese investment. Canada-US talks have resumed, but Prime Minister Mark Carney isn’t ready to sign a deal yet. The broader USMCA remains in force, although Washington’s decision not to extend the pact for another 16 years has triggered annual reviews and left rules of origin, China, agriculture, labor and environmental provisions unresolved. Labor enforcement is also an issue: a new Economic Policy Institute analysis calls for expanding USMCA labor enforcement into sectors including agriculture, while tightening rules of origin and supply-chain traceability to curb third-country transshipment.

Across the Atlantic, the EU-Mercosur agreement is opening greater European access for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Provisionally in force since May 1, the agreement will liberalize about 92% of EU imports from Mercosur. Agriculture is a key beneficiary: beef enters under a new 7.5% in-quota tariff, with reductions phased in over time. Mercosur is simultaneously pushing deeper into Southeast Asia. Vietnam completed its first round of preferential trade negotiations with the bloc in August and is now urging for Brazilian businesses’ support. Indonesia is also pursuing a preferential agreement with Mercosur. Brazilian President Lula’s re-election is expected to provide continuity to that trade push, although tariffs, agricultural market access and political differences remain potential hurdles. The cattle connection is developing: JBS shipped its first Brazilian beef in 2025 and plans to invest $100 million in two Vietnamese plants processing beef, pork and poultry for Vietnam and Southeast Asia. Taken together, the negotiations point to Mercosur’s major cattle and hide-producing countries gaining greater access both to Europe and to Southeast Asia—home to some of the world’s most important tanning, footwear and leather-goods manufacturing centers. Mercosur members still need to determine how some EU quotas, particularly beef, will be divided, while final EU legal and parliamentary approval remains outstanding.

India and the US are nearing completion of the first phase of their trade agreement. Agriculture remains a sticking point, with Indian farm groups concerned that lower tariffs could increase competition from US agricultural products. India’s Trade Minister insists sensitive farm interests will be protected. While India is also a major leather, footwear and leather-goods manufacturing center, the reports so far provide no indication that hides, leather or leather products are specifically included in the first-phase agreement.

US and China, in a ‘conflicted co-dependency’

Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says the recent US.-China thaw has created temporary stability but has not resolved the countries’ “conflicted co-dependency.” Two summits this year have produced an extended trade truce and proposed tariff reductions on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods from each country, but Roach says fundamental tensions over trade, tariffs, sanctions and China’s growing economic power remain. Both countries also face domestic pressures: high energy prices in the US. and weak housing, high youth unemployment and dependence on exports in China. Xi and Trump are scheduled to meet again at APEC in Shenzhen in November and the G20 in Miami in December.

EU targets PFAS in footwear and leather goods

The European Footwear Confederation supports phasing out intentionally used PFAS in footwear and leather goods but is pressing the EU for clearer liability rules and transition periods where viable alternatives are unavailable. CEC says manufacturers should not be held responsible for PFAS introduced elsewhere in the supply chain and recommends supplier declarations and targeted testing rather than testing every component. Treated leather, coatings, adhesives and waterproofing are among the materials potentially affected.

Fashion discovers nature—but which nature?

In a number of articles in their sustainability coverage, Vogue Business reports that fashion companies are moving beyond carbon to embrace biodiversity, land restoration and even dedicated “nature” specialists. Kering, LVMH and H&M are among those developing broader strategies around ecosystems and raw-material sourcing. Kering’s Regenerative Fund for Nature, for example, is supporting sheep farmers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape to restore degraded grazing land, while companies are examining risks ranging from water scarcity and drought-damaged natural fibers to the land and diversity of plants on which cattle graze. Still, there seems to be a disconnect. Fashion is increasingly talking about using sourcing to restore nature, but they are also wary of exotic materials such as python. Even if the python is an invasive population and needs to be removed to protect native eco systems that nuance seems to have gone the sustainability reporters passed. The emerging thinking goes beyond certification or simply labeling a material “sustainable”, it suggests working with farmers, ranchers and local communities to regenerate landscapes and use demand for raw materials as an economic incentive for conservation. It raises a more useful question for leather and exotics: Is there a way to source this material and do less harm? Or, can sourcing it actually do some good?

Buy a python clutch, save Florida’s puppies and kittens

We’ve all heard it, maybe you’ve also said it: “A dead snake is a good snake.” This comment has a tendency to surface in conversations about boots and bags, or, when people find a dangerous snake in their backyard. So when we heard about the immense problem with invasive pythons in Florida – some upward of 18 feet long – our immediate thought was opportunity.

If not sooner, definitely after a big python-news summer including reports by BBC and Good Morning America, we assumed that procurement teams at luxury and premium brands had shared the scoop with their creative departments. That collections of boots, bags and belts were sketched out and in the making. We imagined marketing teams working overtime, carefully crafting the politically correct message with a solid sustainability twist, a dash of beauty and a touch of danger.

Most of all, we envisioned customer representatives sending emailed invitations to their VIP-clients: “Reserve your exclusive python clutch, made from 100% invasive snake skin. Not only do you get an exquisite bag, you will help save an eco system. Only $7,200. Delivers in March.” In our minds, it is the ultimate branding opportunity, driven by a narrative of genuine sustainability and traceability.

In Florida, Burmese python is an invasive species multiplying so fast authorities allows hunting and killing them year around and even pays professional contractors to do it. This has created a niche supply of responsibly harvested skins with an unusual environmental story behind them. Think brand storytelling.

The problem dates to the exotic-pet boom of the ‘70s and ’80s, when mansion-tigers, piranhas and giant snakes fit neatly into the Scarface, Miami Vice and James Bond aesthetic. Some escaped; others were released. Florida’s environment did the rest.

By 2000, Florida had a self-sustaining population. Today the snakes have spread beyond the Everglades, into trees where where they rest, bask and brood eggs, and into urban areas, bringing the threat closer to pets and domestic animals as in addition to native wildlife. The impact is already severe. In heavily invaded areas of the Everglades, one long-term study recorded declines in raccoons (99.3%), opossums (98.9%) and bobcats (87.5%). Then there is their staggering reproduction rate. One 18-footer held about 200 developing eggs.

To combat the crisis the state of Florida pay professional contractors $14–$30/hour plus $50 for the first four feet, $25 for every additional foot and $200 for an active nest. There’s even a contest, the 10-day Florida Python Challenge. Thousands of snakes have been killed, but nobody really knows how many are out there. Estimates run into the hundreds of thousands, and the snakes are now appearing in new territory and unexpected places, and pushing north…

Yet, the luxury market is moving in different directions. We asked Andrea Guolo to give an update on exotics. He writes: “The demand for python is virtually non-existent, as the material has been the target of media and social media campaigns to the point it has been totally discredited in the eyes of consumers and luxury brands alike.”

We think our imagined invasive python bag remains the ultimate sustainable statement.

One plus one is two. Harvesting doesn’t get much more responsible than this. These pythons are not being killed because somebody wants a handbag, Florida wants them eradicated anyway. Putting legally and responsibly harvested skins into leather goods doesn’t just gives value to an animal being removed to protect the ecosystem — it serves up a branding narrative to die for. And, perhaps the only luxury clutch with a credible claim protecting Florida’s puppies and kittens?

We invite all who trade in invasive species to report their prices to our Exotics Price Index. Read Andrea’s full special report on exotic skins: “Python goes slowly, Lizard and Teju soar” in his column “Our Man in Milan” below.

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