Hide & TrendTM

HIDE & TREND is a US-based weekly market intelligence report covering hide and leather prices, industry news and trends. The report is dedicated to optimizing trade in hide/leather by offering prices, other industry intel, news and – obviously – trends.

WEEK 45 US steer hides soften as Chinese buyers push back. BBS $22.50. Ports strike postponed again. China and Denmark, top contenders for modern maritime dominance. Screwworm cases jump to 113. US Midterms: Fashion gains, tariffs remain. America’s market is strong, but Luxury has a Gen Z problem. And all cobblers worth their bootblack went to Chicago and Stitchdown this weekend. Leave it to boutique bootmakers from around the world to spin the alluring yarn of American leather in their sales pitches. Perhaps there’s a story in there for the whole industry?

We continue to build report that’s easy to navigate and designed to grow alongside the industry we’re covering. HIDE & TREND reports news, stats, and intel dug up 1990s-journalism style without being in anybody’s pocket.

LA/LB port strike threat postponed until Nov. 20

Contract negotiations involving approximately 250 security workers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have been extended another two weeks, delaying a potential strike. The three-day East and Gulf Coast port strike in 2024 rattled hide exporters but ended before serious disruption. This time, the nation’s busiest container gateway and a critical route for US hide exports to Asia is at stake. A shutdown could mean costly rerouting, congestion and delays. With fuel surcharges reportedly up more than 65%, exporters can ill afford another logistics headache. Operations continue while negotiations remain unresolved. Bloomberg/Insurance Journal.

Midterm shakeup leaves exporters waiting on tariff relief

The Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterms offers no immediate tariff relief, particularly on shipments to China. Greater congressional scrutiny of President Trump’s trade policies could improve prospects for agricultural exporters, but may also complicate negotiations. Trump retains broad executive authority over tariffs, making a major policy reversal unlikely.

China: Beijing may press for concessions ahead of the January expiration of the U.S.–China trade truce. Some pro-free-trade Republicans could join Democrats in challenging tariffs that have hurt agricultural and industrial exporters. But a Democratic Congress may also push for tougher restrictions on Chinese technology and supply chains. For U.S. hide sellers, promised tariff relief remains unresolved.

USMCA: Trade tensions with Mexico are unlikely to ease quickly. Mexico continues seeking relief from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, while Washington may demand stricter rules of origin and greater enforcement. With $873 billion in annual bilateral goods trade at stake, negotiators are pursuing interim agreements before year-end, leaving more difficult issues for 2027. The USMCA remains in force, but its July review failed to secure an extension, triggering annual reviews through 2036.

Agriculture: New congressional leadership could reshape priorities for the cattle sector, including herd rebuilding, animal health, slaughter capacity and export promotion. USDA trade programs and foreign market development funding will be worth watching. Greater scrutiny of tariffs that hurt American agricultural exporters could benefit the hide trade, although relief is far from guaranteed.

From a broader trade perspective, the election could weaken Washington’s negotiating leverage. Japan and South Korea may reconsider investment commitments of $550 billion and $350 billion, respectively, while India could slow progress toward a trade agreement. And for the hide and leather trade, the election changes the political landscape, not the tariffs. Congressional oversight may increase, and agricultural priorities may shift, but exporters still face uncertain access to China and unresolved North American trade negotiations. Reuters, South China Morning Post, Mexico Business News, Latin Times, Agri-Pulse.

Lear Corporation profits rise despite weaker vehicle production

Automotive seating and electronics supplier Lear reported third-quarter 2026 sales of $5.8 billion, up 2% YoY, while net income jumped 26% to $137 million. Growth came despite a 2% decline in global vehicle production, including a 5% drop in both North America (5%) and China (7%). Europe increased 1%. Lear’s Seating division recorded an adjusted margin of 6.3%, supported by new business and commercial recoveries. The company secured additional seating contracts in North America, India and China, with a new Michigan seat manufacturing facility scheduled to open in early 2027. The results suggest resilience in automotive seating demand despite weaker vehicle production, although Lear provided no specific figures for leather upholstery.

US Midterms: Fashion gains, tariffs remain

Democrats’ takeover of both chambers of Congress sent the Dow up 2.8% and brought cautious optimism to fashion. The blue raises hope for greater political stability and scrutiny of US tariff policy. Affordability remains consumers’ biggest concern, despite resilient luxury spending. The US continues to outperform other luxury markets, with Hermès reporting 8.8% growth in the Americas in Q3 and Zegna up 14%. High-income shoppers are driving much of it, but the markets, analysts argue need to trickle down and goods be affordable for the general consumer. For fashion and leather goods, the outlook remains cautiously positive, but tariffs, inflation and consumer purchasing power remain critical. Vogue Business.

Stitchdown is back in Chicago

Every cobbler worth his bootblack is in Chicago this weekend as Ben Robinson’s Stitchdown brings together boutique bootmakers, legendary American tanneries and leather enthusiasts from around the world. Horween, Wickett & Craig and Red Wing Shoe Co. are back, joined by exotic and invasive leathers, Japanese cordovan and Italian calfskin.

“We’ve always been lucky to have fantastic, world-class tanneries at Stitchdown Expo and our HIDE materials trade show,” Robinson said as he put the final touches on everything this week.

Starting Thursday, Boots will be bought, sold, repaired and inspected down to the last stitch.

“There’s something special about connecting directly with people who obsess over product details in the same way that we do,” said Jamie Kvamme of Red Wing Shoe Co. as she was heading down to Chicago from Minnesota. ”I’m always impressed with the interest and knowledge about the leather and construction, to the design, craftsmanship and performance of the product.”

Stitchdown draws a niche market? Absolutely. But one where the American leather heritage still commands a broad and devoted international following. Full report next week.

Ecco closes factories, cuts 2,400 jobs

Danish footwear and leather group Ecco will close manufacturing plants in Portugal and Vietnam, citing years of declining demand and production capacity 65% above sales requirements. More than 2,400 jobs will be affected, including 400 corporate positions. Production will be consolidated in Indonesia, Thailand and China. The Portugal closure is expected by Q1 2027, while Vietnam operations are winding down this month.

Mercosur-Singapore trade pact fully takes effect

The Mercosur-Singapore Free Trade Agreement took effect with Argentina Nov. 1, completing implementation across all four founding Mercosur members — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The pact covers goods, services, investment, government procurement and digital trade. Mercosur will eliminate tariffs on about 96% of products over as long as 15 years, with roughly 25% of tariff lines becoming duty-free immediately. The agreement also introduces common rules of origin and streamlined customs procedures. Argentina’s agricultural strength is expected to support Singapore’s push to diversify food imports, while the agreement opens broader opportunities in energy, infrastructure, logistics, technology and services. SMCP, Yahoo, Reuters.

Brazil’s agricultural and footwear exports rise under Mercosur

The Mercosur Brazilian agricultural exports to the EU rose 14.8% YoY to $12.21 billion during the first five months of the provisional EU–Mercosur trade agreement (May-Sept. 2026). Export volume increased 8.1%. Meat exports surged 170% in volume, value up 103.5%. Brazilian footwear exports also gained to 2.8 million pairs, at a value of $29.6 million. Average EU tariffs on Brazilian footwear decreased from 10.7% to 9.3%. A further reduction to 8.2% scheduled for January 2027 under the agreement’s ten-year tariff phaseout. The reports do not break out beef from other meats or provide hide and leather export data, nor does it separate leather and synthetics in the footwear. But increased export and lowering tariffs mean strengthening trade tides between two continents other than North America. Datamar/Globo Rural/Abicalçados.

Maersk profits disappoint, but investment arm expands port interests

Maersk shares fell as much as 12% after Q3 earnings missed expectations, despite revenue rising 27% YoY to $18.1 billion. Spot freight rates jumped 46%, driven by Asian port congestion and Middle East disruptions, but shipping volumes slipped 1% and operating costs rose 18%, largely due to higher fuel expenses. Maersk nevertheless raised its full-year forecast for the third time. Meanwhile, sister company A.P. Moller Capital plans to acquire Singapore’s Portek International and a controlling stake in Belgium’s Euroports parent company, expanding its interests across more than 50 terminals in Europe and China, plus operations in Africa and Asia. The deals, pending regulatory approval, signal further consolidation of global port infrastructure. For exporters, growing consolidation of port infrastructure could improve shipping efficiency but it would also concentrate control over terminal access and handling costs. WSJ/Business Insider Africa.

China’s is building its maritime dominance

The United States of America was once a dominant maritime power. US still has the world’s most powerful navy, but China is building ships faster and expanding its reach overseas. Its fleet now exceeds 400 ships and submarines, against roughly 290 for the U.S. More significant is the gap in shipbuilding capacity. Chinese yards produced 52.6% of the world’s cargo-carrying tonnage in 2025, compared with just 0.01% for the US Beijing has also invested in commercial ports along major shipping routes from Asia to Europe, Africa and Latin America, many under its Belt and Road Initiative. These investments serve trade today but could also support naval operations. The US retains the advantage in naval tonnage and aircraft carriers, but rebuilding its shipbuilding industry will take time.

Against this backdrop, US exporters push back against Chinese ship fees. American manufacturers and trade groups are urging USTR to keep fees on Chinese-built vessels suspended through at least January 2027. They contend the charges would do little to restore American shipbuilding capacity while raising freight costs for US exporters, including hide suppliers shipping to Asia. WSJ, Shipping Telegraph, Maritime News, SCMP, Nikkei.

China’s market rescue fails to restore investor confidence

Chinese stocks have entered bear-market territory, with the blue-chip index down more than 20% from its June peak despite $15 billion in government liquidity support. Leveraged holdings hit a one-year low, new stock-account openings fell more than 30% in October, and corporate profits dropped 13% YoY in Q3. Morgan Stanley warns of another 10%–15% decline. Transparency is another concern: research found Chinese companies routinely omit sensitive information from English-language financial reports. Meanwhile, economists estimate actual economic growth at just 0%–3%, against Beijing’s official 4.5%. For U.S. hide exporters, weak Chinese domestic demand remains the bigger concern. Government intervention may stabilize financial markets, but it cannot manufacture demand for leather. SCMP/WSJ.

US cattle herd rebuilding stalls as drought worsens

US beef cow liquidation appears to have bottomed out, but herd rebuilding remains elusive. Cow culling is down from 13.19% in 2022 to a projected record low of 7.35% in 2026. Heifer retention remains insufficient to expand the herd. At least 200,000 replacement heifers may be needed to simply maintain current numbers as the cow herd ages. Heifer slaughter fell +11% thru September, suggesting some retention, but worsening drought complicates expansion. By November, 96% of Arkansas beef cows and 77% of Mississippi cows were in drought/severe drought. Poor forage conditions mean earlier hay feeding and higher costs. Economists see little prospect of meaningful herd growth in 2027. For the hide trade, a prolonged period of tight US cattle and hide supplies remains likely. Drovers.‘

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